Last week I opened up the Start em, Sit em post by telling you about how was I was off to a strong 5-2 start in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy League*. With the stakes being two tickets to the Super Bowl, you can imagine how much focus I’ve put on doing well in this league.
This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.
I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.
I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.
Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.
But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.
It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.
The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.
And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.
Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:
- Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
Week 8 Recap:
- Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
- Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
- Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
- Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A
Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)
Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.
While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.
Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:
- Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
- Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
- Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
- Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)
Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.
However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.
In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.
Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.
Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:
- Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
- Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)
This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.
Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.
All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.
Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:
- I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
- Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
- Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em RB: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (v Pittsburgh)
If you think I just look for whichever running back is playing Pittsburgh and then say “sit ‘em,” well you’re right. I do. And seeing as how Benson hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, I think it’s even more reasonable this week.
When you look at Benson’s history against the Steelers, sitting him becomes even more obvious. In four career games against the Steelers, Cedric has run the ball 53 times for an average of only 3.5 yards. He’s scored just one TD.
The Bengals are scoring through the air right now, when they score at all. I still like Benson long term this season, but certainly not this week.
Cedric Benson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 45 yards rushing, 1 reception, 10 yards
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 9:
- Felix Jones and Marion Barber. Sit them until further notice. I like no Cowboys running backs until they inevitably turn it over to Tashard Choice and his 5.1 yard career average.
- Ronnie Brown has not been good at all this year. I’ve stayed confident in him, but that ends now. Ricky Williams has been the better, quicker back and is the guy who scored in Week 8. Against Baltimore, I say sit Ronnie.
- The Bears are very good defensively and Fred Jackson simply hasn’t proven to be a touchdown threat. It’s a good week to sit him.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em WR: Calvin Johnson, Detroit (v New York Jets)
You are probably thinking a couple of things:
- Isn’t starting Calvin Johnson obvious?
- How could you say start CJ when you’re telling me to sit Matthew Stafford?
As to the first question, my answer is yes, it should be obvious. Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. Hell, he may be the most talented. Need proof? His four TDs over the last three games should have done it, all coming with two different QBs under center. So yes, starting him should be obvious. But with the Jets on the schedule, I know many of you will get cold feet and ask me if you should.
This is me saying, emphatically, yes!
As to the second question, see how I’m projecting Matthew Stafford for one TD even though I’m telling you to sit him? Well guess who I think gets that TD? That’s right: Calvin Johnson.
Look, if you follow my fantasy advice you know that I always trust my stars and the guys with proven track records. It doesn’t work out every time, but it does work most of the time. And making the right decision most of the time is all you can hope for when it comes to fantasy football. Starting Calvin Johnson will be right most of the time. So start him all of the time.
Calvin Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 9:
- Terrell Owens keeps producing and you simply cannot sit him right now. With Cincinnati likely being unable to run, they’ll have to throw. The matchup isn’t great, but T.O. is clearly the #1 option right now and those targets warrant starting him.
- Dwayne Bowe only had 3 catches for 16 yards in Week 8, but it was the third straight game in which he has caught a TD. Facing an Oakland team likely to be without its top corner, Bowe has weaseled his way into must-start status with something we’ve never seen from him before: consistency.
- Whoever is playing WR for the Chargers in Week 9 – be it Malcom Floyd, Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, or the guy whose name is hard to spell – will be productive. The Chargers face the Texans’ pass D, and we know how that usually goes.
- Don’t get too down on Miles Austin (like I did in Week 8). He had 7 catches for 117 yards in Week 8 and should be good against in Week 9. Dez Bryant was also solid. Curiously, Roy Williams has not been able to get going with his old friend Jon Ktina. I’d sit him until he does.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em WR: Steve Johnson, Buffalo (v Chicago)
I am well aware that Steve Johnson has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. He’s also faced some pass defenses during that streak that I wouldn’t be too scared of. (Remember, Revis wasn’t healthy when they faced the Jets). In Week 9, Johnson faces a Bears D that has given up only four passing touchdowns all season.
When players have not done well, we often justify playing them by saying that they “are due”. Well, shouldn’t there be an equivalent for a guy who is probably playing over his head during an extended period of time?
Johnson is a fine player, and he is emerging as a solid fantasy option, but he’s not going to catch a touchdown every week. Johnson will probably put up 4-5 catches and 50-60 yards even if he doesn’t grab a TD, but you can probably do better than that.
Steve Johnson fantasy football Week 9 projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 9:
- When everyone went nuts about Deion Branch after his first game back with Tom Brady, I was the voice of reason telling you not to get too optimistic. A few subpar games later and it looks like I was right. Branch will be too unpredictable to count on.
- I’m not a real big fan of any Jets receivers – Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes especially – until they show some consistency and their QB gets back on track.
- You all laughed when I didn’t jump completely onto the Mike Williams (SEA) bandwagon. He responded by catching one pass for 27 yards in Week 8. The Tampa Bay Mike Williams has officially become the better option.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em TE: Todd Heap, Baltimore (v Miami)
Heap was my primary TE pickup in the waiver wire post this week. The reason? He caught two TDs his last time out and the Dolphins have been generous to tight ends this year. Heap won’t catch more than 3-4 balls max, but he’s clearly a guy Joe Flacco looks to in the red zone. With so many good TEs on bye this week, that’s good enough for me.
Todd Heap fantasy football Week 9 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs in Week 9:
- I still like Dustin Keller. With Mark Sanchez struggling, I think he goes back to the guy he was clicking with early in the season. Detroit provides an inviting matchup with which to do so.
- Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore are both decent options in Cleveland as long as Colt McCoy is the QB. Even if he’s not, who else will Seneca Wallace or Jake Delhomme throw to?
Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v New York Jets)
Pettigrew did catch a TD in Week 8, but he only had 2 receptions for 8 yards overall. With the Jets coming to town a week after holding Green Bay tight ends to 1 catch for 5 yards, Pettigrew is not a guy I would want to be counting on. He’ll have plenty more good games this season; Week 9 just probably won’t be one of them.
Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 9 projection: 2 receptions, 15 yards, 0 TD
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 9:
- Jermaine Gresham’s production has really stagnated. I wouldn’t expect it to pick up against the Steelers.
- There aren’t enough touches to go around in New York for Kevin Boss to get his. This guy should not really be owned in any leagues.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em Defense: New England Patriots (at Cleveland)
The Patriots defense has not been all that spectacular from a fantasy perspective this year outside of their monstrous performance against the Dolphins. However, wouldn’t you like your chances with a Bill Belichick defense against a rookie QB with very few play-makers? I would, and that’s exactly what we get in Week 9 with the Pats likely going up against Colt McCoy.
Yes, the Browns are coming off a bye, but the Patriots also bottled up the potent Vikings offense pretty well. That bodes well for a solid Week 9 performance.
New England Patriots fantasy football Week 9 projection: 14 or fewer points, 2 TOs, 3 sacks, potential for a TD (special teams or terrible McCoy pass)
Other start ‘em Defenses for Week 9:
- The Chiefs should pretty much be started every week in every league right now. Week 9 against the Raiders is no exception.
- Green Bay’s D against Jon Kitna and no running game? Yes please.
Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em Defense: Seattle Seahawks (v New York Giants)
I trusted the Seahawks in Week 8 and they let me down. Sure, they were on the road, and they’re back at home in Week 9, but I’m still not sold on Seattle as an elite defense. With the potent Giants offense coming to town, I think the Seahawks could struggle to put up fantasy numbers outside of the inevitable INTs they’ll get from Eli.
Seattle Seahawks fantasy football Week 9 projection: 24 or more points, 2 TOs, 1 sack
Other sit ‘em Defenses for Week 9:
- I was way too high on Tampa Bay’s defense in Week 8. Though they scored defensive touchdowns, those are impossible to predict and they otherwise got torched by the Cardinals. Playing the Falcons in Atlanta does not lead to much confidence.
- I think the Miami-Baltimore game could end up producing a lot of points. I wouldn’t be too excited about either D playing for me.
And that’s it. The comment section is yours. Ask away.
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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.
